Michael Brinkmann, Dragan Ilic
Technische und ökonomische Aspekte des VDSL-Ausbaus, Glasfaser als Alternative auf der (vor-) letzten Meile
Nr. 281 / Oktober 2006
Summary
One of the currently most significant developments in the German Telecommunication Market refers to the roll out of fibre technology and the introduction of VDSL within the Access Network. In initially 10 and later on further 40 German cities, Deutsche Telekom is going to deploy fibre technology in the local loop to provide VDSL and Triple Play services to end-customers.
Therefore, fibre as an alternative transmission medium becomes relevant besides the traditional copper based access lines. This work discusses the implications on the network structure and the corresponding network elements in the local loop being accompanied with the VDSL roll out.
Further, the paper estimates the underlying costs which are used – together with the most recently defined Triple Play retail prices – for evaluating the profitability of the VDSL roll out. The analysis focuses on the question, which break-even penetration has to be achieved to cover the costs and to sustain the business case.
The results reveal that VDSL might constitute the relevant standard in the future and forcing all services’ migration to VDSL might be the operator’s appropriate strategy. In the long run this aspect addresses the migration to an All-IP network which in turn significantly affects the current access network. Further on, attention has to be paid to a whole set of regulatory issues for example to access to the main distribution frame.
With respect to the migration of existing networks to an All-IP network, KPN is alleged as a realistic example for such a scenario. In the course of replacing its current network KPN intends to maintain only a small fraction of recent main distribution frames. The functionality of the existing distribution frames will be reluctant. Only every sixth of them will act as a broadband concentration point. [Full text available in German only]
Diskussion Paper is available for download.