The migration to fibre is one of the largest infrastructure projects in the coming years. It raises numerous regulatory, competition policy and consumer-related questions with a relevant impact on markets and consumers in the years ahead.
The report ‘A model analysis of the shutdown of the copper network and the migration from copper to fibre’ examines various scenarios to determine when, from a business perspective, it would be a rational strategy for the incumbent to shut down its copper networks and migrate its remaining retail and wholesale customers. In a scenario that is considered likely, a complete shutdown would not be expected until after 2035. At the end of 2030, there would still be 12.6 million broadband customers on the x-DSL infrastructure, and at the end of 2033, there would still be 6.2 million.
Based on experiences in other European Member States, the benchmark analysis derives important take-aways for the German market which, regardless of the fact that the migration steps must always be viewed against the backdrop of national developments, are relevant for the migration to fibre in Germany. Key findings include the fact that conditions for the copper switch-off were established at an early stage in a transparent process and that regulatory authorities played an active role in shaping it.
