In this study, we estimate what bandwidth and other quality of service requirements consumers, SMEs, and larger businesses may need in the period to 2035 and consider which policies could help to achieve these goals from the supply and demand side.
The study estimates that in the absence of any constraints, around 40% of all European consumers and 50% of SMEs will need at least 1 Gigabit connectivity by 2035 and that quality requirements will necessitate widespread availability of FTTH and dedicated connections for enterprises. While this will be achieved in many countries by 2030, gaps persist in certain countries, due to the persistence of legacy copper networks in some countries, which has undermined take-up of fibre and led to poor financial performance amongst alternative financial investors. Key strategies to address this could include the development by national authorities of FTTH deployment plans and copper switch-off. Availability and take-up of Gigabit broadband could be fostered by ensuring competition in quality, via appropriately specified (unbundled) wholesale products where competition would otherwise not be effective.
Mobile data usage in the EU is relatively high, but on the supply side it is constrained by perceived low demand and limited willingness to pay for higher-quality mobile services. In addition, figures suggest that some smaller mobile operators are struggling financially and may not be able to deliver the substantial investments needed for 5G network densification. Possible strategies to address this include setting EU level targets referencing quality, including coverage and quality obligations in spectrum licences, and taking into account when awarding spectrum the number of infrastructures that may be viable in view of investment required. The study also recommends improved transparency regarding mobile quality of service to enable customers to distinguish higher quality offers.
